Stockholm (Ekonamik) – This week will be dominated by one major political decision and three economic events. Politically, the new leader of the incumbent Conservative party in the UK and by association the next prime minister of the country will be chosen on Tuesday. The race has come down to Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson and it seems Johnson will win.
Economically he first, and perhaps less consequent, but still important, will be the publication of Composite PMI flash estimates for July covering the largest developed economies in the world on Wednesday.
The day after, the ECB, as well as its Turkish counterpart will hold its monetary policy meeting. According to Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist for the Eurozone at Handelsbanken Capital Markets, the ECB will not lower rates this month, only in September.
Lastly, Friday will see the publication of advanced GDP figures for the US Economy during the second quarter of this year. The point estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is of real GDP growth of 1.6%. Since the end of April the point estimate has not risen above 2.1% nor has it fallen below 0.9%. The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) suggest a slightly higher level of 1.9%. The Central Bank of Russia will also hold its monetary policy meeting on Friday.
| 22/07/2019 | Monday | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (USA) (June) |
| CBI Business Optimism Index (UK) (2019Q3) |
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| 23/07/2019 | Tuesday | BoE FPC Minutes (UK) |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (USA) (July) | ||
| Redbook (USA) (July) | ||
| Consumer Confidence (€Z) (July)(Flash) | ||
| Bond issuance (UK, USA) | ||
| 24/07/2019 | Wednesday | Markit Composite PMI (Australia, €Z, France, Germany, Japan, USA) (July)(Flash) |
| CPI Inflation (South Africa)(June) | ||
| Mortgage Market Data (UK, USA)(June/July) | ||
| Bond issuance (UK, USA) | ||
| EcoFin Meetng (EU) |
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| 25/07/2019 | Thursday | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting (€Z) |
| TCMB Monetary Policy Meeting (Turkey) |
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| GDP Growth ( South Korea)(2019Q2) | ||
| CPI Inflation (Australia)(2019Q2) | ||
| Unemployment rate (Spain) (2019Q2) | ||
| Ifo Surveys (Germany) (July) | ||
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (USA) (July) |
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| Initial Jobless Claims (USA)(July) |
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| Bond Issuance (USA) | ||
| 26/07/2019 | Friday | GDP Growth (USA)(2019Q2)(Advanced) |
| CBR Monetary Policy Meeting (Russia) | ||
| Balance of Trade (Mexico)(June) | ||
| Foreign Exchange Reserves (India)(July) |
